Please read the README file in this repository.

Other analyses

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• Analyze
• Croatia-Nordics-And-Some
• Europe
• Asia
• South_America
• Africa

Table of Contents

• Analysis of the most affected countries in North America
• Cross-country comparison over absolute dates
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis
  • Mexico
  • US
  • Panama
  • Costa Rica
  • Canada
  • Honduras
  • Guatemala
  • Dominican Republic
• Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak
  • List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)
  • Trinidad and Tobago
  • El Salvador
  • Jamaica

Analysis of the most affected countries in North America⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Mexico⮸

Population $128,932,753$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $986,177$ on 2020-11-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,003,703.7}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 150.4)}}\) (asimptote \(1,003,703.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $96,430$ on 2020-11-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{95,177.0}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 129.3)}}\) (asimptote \(95,177.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $65,392$ on 2020-11-11

US⮸

Population $331,002,651$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $10,400,227$ on 2020-11-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{11,352,961.9}{1 + 10^{-0.009 (t - 173.0)}}\) (asimptote \(11,352,961.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $241,798$ on 2020-11-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{233,324.2}{1 + 10^{-0.009 (t - 103.0)}}\) (asimptote \(233,324.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $6,161,254$ on 2020-11-11

Panama⮸

Population $4,314,767$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $142,465$ on 2020-11-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{140,932.4}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 151.0)}}\) (asimptote \(140,932.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,823$ on 2020-11-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,810.9}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 145.3)}}\) (asimptote \(2,810.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $18,819$ on 2020-11-11

Costa Rica⮸

Population $5,094,118$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $119,768$ on 2020-11-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{137,999.9}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 200.0)}}\) (asimptote \(137,999.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,513$ on 2020-11-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,755.9}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 194.7)}}\) (asimptote \(1,755.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $44,746$ on 2020-11-11

Canada⮸

Population $37,742,154$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $280,462$ on 2020-11-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,042,987.3}{1 + 10^{-0.004 (t - 381.3)}}\) (asimptote \(1,042,987.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $10,748$ on 2020-11-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,343.5}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 56.8)}}\) (asimptote \(9,343.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $42,888$ on 2020-11-11

Honduras⮸

Population $9,904,607$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $101,169$ on 2020-11-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{103,718.5}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 153.8)}}\) (asimptote \(103,718.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,797$ on 2020-11-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,800.0}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 137.2)}}\) (asimptote \(2,800.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $54,515$ on 2020-11-11

Guatemala⮸

Population $17,915,568$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $112,811$ on 2020-11-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{109,383.7}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 141.5)}}\) (asimptote \(109,383.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $3,845$ on 2020-11-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,648.2}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 119.7)}}\) (asimptote \(3,648.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $6,323$ on 2020-11-11

Dominican Republic⮸

Population $10,847,910$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $131,265$ on 2020-11-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{130,940.9}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 139.5)}}\) (asimptote \(130,940.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,272$ on 2020-11-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,591.0}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 139.5)}}\) (asimptote \(2,591.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $19,936$ on 2020-11-11

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Trinidad and Tobago recovered 79%
El Salvador recovered 75%
Jamaica recovered 4%

Trinidad and Tobago⮸

Population $1,399,488$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,904$ on 2020-11-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,760.0}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 182.9)}}\) (asimptote \(5,760.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $111$ on 2020-11-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{117.8}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 179.9)}}\) (asimptote \(117.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $509$ on 2020-11-11

El Salvador⮸

Population $6,486,205$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $35,145$ on 2020-11-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{32,958.5}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 129.8)}}\) (asimptote \(32,958.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,024$ on 2020-11-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{968.4}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 128.2)}}\) (asimptote \(968.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,949$ on 2020-11-11

Jamaica⮸

Population $2,961,167$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $9,581$ on 2020-11-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,794.6}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 196.0)}}\) (asimptote \(10,794.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $225$ on 2020-11-11

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{260.3}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 204.1)}}\) (asimptote \(260.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $4,361$ on 2020-11-11